Gold moves when several forces line up, and right now they all are.
Central banks are buying gold at levels we haven't seen in decades. The World Gold Council reported that central banks added more than 1,000 tonnes of gold to their reserves in 2024, and continued buying through 2025, with full-year demand reaching over 800 tonnes. That's more than twice the pre-2022 average. When central banks buy, they're not trading. They're storing wealth for decades, which permanently removes supply from the open market.
Interest rates in the US are expected to fall. Gold doesn't pay interest, so when savings accounts and bonds pay less, gold becomes relatively more attractive. The market is currently pricing in further rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve into 2026, which is part of why prices have stayed elevated.
The US dollar has weakened. Because gold is priced globally in USD, a softer dollar pushes prices up. For Australian buyers, this compounds with our own currency movements.
Geopolitical uncertainty isn't going anywhere. Gold is the thing people reach for when they don't trust the alternatives. Trade tensions, conflict, and general unpredictability have pushed investors and institutions into gold as a safe haven.
J.P. Morgan Global Research has forecasts ranging from $4,500 to $6,000 USD per ounce through 2026. Goldman Sachs has a target of $5,400 USD. In AUD terms, depending on the exchange rate, that's serious territory.